Reasonable People

Bare promises

It’s not enough to mean it, we like to see you make the effort

Sep 21 • Tom Stafford

10

1

2

Good taste is a bias

Methods for aggregating collective judgement may not recognise that

Sep 7 • Tom Stafford

6

1

1

August 2026

That was the year that was

And I’ve paused subscription payments

Aug 31 • Tom Stafford

11

1

Summer picture edition

A "things that caught my eye" interlude for Reasonable People

Aug 12 • Tom Stafford

5

6

July 2026

Gradually, then all at once

Why belief change is like bankruptcy

Jul 27 • Tom Stafford

27

7

6

Predicting human behaviour

Why it is hard, and why LLMs may not help

Jul 20 • Tom Stafford

11

7

2

Social thinking

How other people, even if just imagined, can help puncture the illusion of understanding

Jul 13 • Tom Stafford

23

1

6

Striking evidence for forced experimentation

A natural experiment shows how we always have something to learn, even about the things we are most familiar with.

Jul 6 • Tom Stafford

17

3

2

June 2026

Another algorithm is possible

How social media could easily be changed to stop us hating each other so much

Jun 29 • Tom Stafford

11

2

5

AI systems out-persuade expert humans. Panic?

Quick review of a compelling new report

Jun 22 • Tom Stafford

15

4

4

Why we like to believe other people are stupid

Reason sells, but who's buying?

Jun 1 • Tom Stafford

27

12

8

May 2026

The Lizardman constant

Important context whenever you hear polling data

May 23 • Tom Stafford

20

12

8